Lao Zi said that 2,500 years ago in his classic text, Tao Te Ching. Clever chap, in my opinion. Really knew his stuff. I wonder if he could have done all 100,000 steps to Supernova though?
Grinding really is a grind. Today is what I expect will become typical of chase – nothing exciting, nothing alarming either. Games were played, and profit was achieved at about my average rate. Two sessions, the second had double the games for double the profit. All pretty dull stuff really, but the whole point of the challenge is to grind through all that, and hopefully find the pot of gold.
I've just had a browse through the players currently atop the SS profit leaderboard for $5 DoNs. Five of them play on small networks, and probably pwn the tables there, but the other 15 are all on Pokerstars. Of all the Stars players on there, only three of them are actually ahead of me on how much they profit per game, and two of those three play the non-turbos. The rest are all ahead of me only because of volume played. It just gives me an idea of the sort of numbers I need to be putting in to get ahead of this game.
So far this month I've only managed about 46 hours of play. That's about one week's work, but it's taken me four weeks to do it. Even worse, nearly half of those hours were spent on short sets where I played 15 or fewer games. All that time wasted not only on a small number of tables, but also on the loading up and running down time at the beginning and end of each set.
I really should be able to maintain around 25 games per hour without unduly straining my decision making, so the number of games I have played should only have taken me about 30 hours, which means about a third of that time was in effect wasted time. If I had put in a "full" month, and assuming I won at my current rate, I'd be top of that leaderboard by a decent margin. I'd also be a Gold star VIP already and be earning a decent sideline in FPPs in February. I really have to start getting proper amounts of hours in, with a full stack of tables.
In addition to my current outstanding goal of making the SS leaderboard, which should follow naturally if I put in the volume, I have decided to set the following goals.
1) To play at least one set every day in February.
2) To post updates of at least the numbers at the end of each day.
3) Play the 100 FPP $30k VIP tournaments each Saturday
4) To make Gold Star in time to play the freeroll $100k VIP tournament at 2000 hrs on the last Saturday of the month (Feb 27th).
The last one is the one which will start to stretch me. I will need to play 2,728 DoNs to do this, in 26 days, at an average of 105 games per day. This is far in excess of what I have managed in January, although there have been other distractions which hopefully will not be there next month. This will begin to approach the sort of volumes I need to hit on a regular basis if I want to achieve my long term goals.
If I can put in that volume then I should be able to clear a pretty decent profit just from the games. I would also release $150 from reload bonuses, and earn around another $50 worth of FPP. If I can do it in February then I should be in a habit by then , and I can repeat it in March, by which time I should be able to set aside enough of a bankroll to make a start on the 10s. I'd also be earning double FPP all of March as a Gold Star.
If I make it up to the 10s then a little more effort per day on average will see me make Platinum on a monthly basis, again increasing my FPP earnings because I will be getting 2.5x instead of the 2x at Gold. That should see me picking up over 15,000 FPP a month, plus the increase in profits from playing a higher stakes game.
If I can get up to the 20s by the end of May I should still be able to maintain a comfortable pace to make Supernova by the end of the year even if I don't move up to 50s at all. Supernova will be worth $1k of Stellar Rewards, another $1k for the 100k VPP milestone bonus, and I would still have enough FPP to buy the $1,500 bonus for 150k FPP, plus maybe a little bit more. So at least $3.5k in cashback, plus any more reload bonuses, plus anything I get from the weekly and monthly VIP donkaments, plus profit from games, obviously. Don't quite know for certain how much it will all add up to yet, but a lot better than sitting around doing nothing all day.
Making Supernova would mean next year would be massive for me, because that would give me the 3.5x FPP multiplier from day one. Then I could start to look at purchasing a $4k bonus sometime during 2011, thus getting the full 1.6c value for each of my FPPs. Maybe even shoot for 200k VPP and get the $3,400 milestone bonus. Would still be less than 1,000 games / week at the 20s, which is very doable. Plus it would unlock access to the $1M VIP donkaments which are held quarterly. Average equity is about $200 per player in each of the tournaments, which adds up to $800 free equity for the year. Pretty good stuff imo. Binking one of those would be absolutely awesome.
But all of that is still a long way off; let's not get so carried away with the long term goals that I forget to focus on what needs to be done in the short term, which is to get the volumes going up pretty quickly.
I thought I'd put all these numbers out here now to emphasise how much work there will be in this grind, to motivate myself to build up the momentum because of the rewards which are there for those who put in the work. I realise that this will not be easy, and it needs to be done at a good constant speed. I can't leave this to a rush at the end all the time, it needs to be approached as a year long project. Getting there will mean I've played between 30,000 and 35,000 of these things, and it will mean around 40 hours per week, just like a "normal" job.
I know I have the ability to do this, I just need to make sure I have the dedication, determination, drive, desire and all those other things that are important in this.
Let's finish off with my year to date numbers. I have now nudged over $300 profit for the year so far, which is decent considering how much (or rather how little) I've played. I finished the day up another $33, but once again not enough volume, only 55 games over the course of two sessions in three hours.
Games 765
Wins 429
ITM 56.1%
Profit $312
ROI 7.8%
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