Variance, MTT style

Well, I'm over 300 games into my 2/180 experiment, and early indications are a little inconclusive. I have a whole bunch of second last table finishes, but they don't even win double the buy-in. I've got 5 wins under my belt, but otherwise I'm not getting really deep into FTs often enough at the moment, only a couple of 3rds and three 4ths, and a whole bunch of 5th thru 9th. My ROI is only a rather disappointing 25%. I'm still feeling positive though, because I seem to remember that a fair number of those early departures were due to horrible suckouts when I had a big chip lead.

I take it as an encouraging sign that I'm getting lots of chips on a regular basis and hope that in the long term it will start to pay off — none of my wins have been sneaking up from behind, in all five cases I've been a big stack from a long way out. I hope that this will balance out as my sample size increases, and I can start to score a few more in the top four positions, but if I continue to fail to make deep runs in FTs then my ROI will struggle to improve and I'll need to do some serious leakbusting earlier than I expected. I don't know whether I'm being too aggro in pursuit of 1st, and maybe should blend in a hint of "laddering". Right now I'm just trying to get a big enough sample to be worth looking at, though obviously I'm trying to win money while I do that.

Today was pretty decent for results, but a little lighter on volume than I intended, two sessions totalling less than 7 hours. I did manage a 1st in each block, and a total profit for the day of just under $150, hauling back the losses of yesterday and the day before, both of them days where I failed to register a win.

I think I'm only just starting to get a feel for just how swongy MTTs are gonna be, and also get an understanding of how just a half dozen coinflips going the other way would make a huge difference to my results so far. And as I try this new format I am re-discovering exactly what is meant by meaningful sample size. I realise I'd forgotten a few weeks ago, before I even started the $10 DoNs and I had become fixated on results over tiny samples. Sometimes I find myself a little on edge when three or four tournaments which are starting to look promising all go up in flames in quick succession, and I'm really starting to appreciate the synch breaks at xx:55 to take a minute or two for some fresh air to calm down and breathe. Fortunately there's always another one going off in a few minutes, so I can quickly replace those I bust, and I have to remember this fact at all time. If I played live I would probably have the worst poker face ever, because live MTTs aren't so easily reloaded!

I think I have to start thinking a level lower in some spots against the donks you come across in these, like raising over tiny donk-bets when I whiff the flop. Far too often villain has top pair, and isn't laying it down; it's caused me grief on a few occasions now. Obvious flushes is another one. So often when they bet they have it and I'm paying off far too regularly, so that's another bad habit to try and drop.

Anyway, looking forward to another fun Sunday on the grind tomorrow, hopefully profits will skyrocket! Aiming for 120 tournaments, or alternatively, to run deep and cash high in so many that I only play a few. Let's see what tomorrow's update brings..........